From Where I Sit

Choosing Which Books to Publish

My post, Too Many Books, Too Few Shelves, raised a lot of great questions about how we determine what we publish at Thomas Nelson. Therefore, I would like to address a persistent issue that was raised in the comments section of that post.

Let me say at the outset that I appreciate the robust dialog. It is very helpful to me, and I hope to other readers. Not only does it help me to clarify my position, but it may actually help shape my position. My thinking is not static, and neither is our strategy. It is a “work in progress.”

Too Many Books, Too Few Shelves

If we can’t stop the presses, we should at least slow them down. U.S. publishers produced almost 300,000 new titles last year, a number that Sara Nelson of Publishers Weekly referred to as “a ridiculous number.”

With bookstore sales rising a modest 3.6% in the last five years, we have more and more books competing for what amounts to the same exact shelf space. Clearly, something is wrong.

A Change in Our Trade Show Strategy

Today, we announced that we will no longer be participating in the two major trade shows in our industry: Book Expo America (BEA) or the International Christian Retail Show (ICRS). As I said in our press release, we have been discussing this move for some time. In fact, it’s a conversation we have had every year since I have been at Nelson (ten years).

But the current economic downturn is forcing us to re-evaluate every marketing dollar we spend. This is not the reason for our shift in strategy, but it is the catalyst. The reality is that these trade shows provide very little return to us on a hugely significant investment.

Chapter 1: Our History

The Little Blue Book Series

I previously announced that our Executive Leadership team wanted to compile our corporate philosophy into a small book. This is an installment in that project.

As you read this chapter, keep in mind that this is not a traditional book. Thomas Nelson employees are the primary audience. The chapters are short on purpose. They are intended to be a sort of “quick reference” for the things that are important to us.

Many companies would simply put this kind of content in their employee manual. However, as a book publishing company, we have chosen to put ours in an actual book.

Once you’ve read this chapter, I’d like your feedback—even if you don’t work for Thomas Nelson. You can do that by leaving specific comments. (If you are reading this post via e-mail, you will need to go to my actual blog, scroll down to the bottom of the post, and leave your comments in the Comment section.) I’d like to hear “the good, the bad, and the ugly.” Based on this feedback, I plan to revise the chapter.

If you want to read other chapters, you can go to the project overview and the table of contents. This also provides the revision history.

Cuimhnich air na daoine o'n d'thainig thu (Remember the people from whom you have come.)

— A Gaelic Proverb

Our company has a long and fascinating history. The story begins in Scotland with the birth of Thomas Neilson (sic) in 1780. Though his parents were farmers, he developed an interest in printing, the most high-tech industry of the 18th century. As a result, his parents sent him to London to become an apprentice in a print shop on Paternoster Row, which was kind of the Silicon Valley of the Day.

In 1798, at the tender age of 18, Neilson started a second-hand bookstore in Edinburgh, Scotland. The store was located at 7 West Bow Street. The store did quite well, but in the early 1800s, he decided to branch out. He began to realize there was a market for inexpensive editions of public domain books. So, in 1818, he began reprinting the classics. He also legally changed the spelling of his name to “Nelson.”

Four Essentials for eBook Success

The Amazon Kindle has sparked (pun intended) a great deal of debate. It seems that people either love it or hate it. Me? I’m probably somewhere in the middle. Despite its obvious shortcomings, I think it’s a giant step forward, and I want to see it succeed.

But I think the device has a ways to go before it creates the kind of seismic shift that the iPod created in the music world. In order for an eBook to succeed, it must incorporate four essential components. I have listed these in priority order.

Is It Really Books That We Love?

It seems that my post on Why Traditional Books Will Eventually Die has sparked a good deal of debate. So far, it has generated more than 40 comments and a number of email messages.

Christian Retailing even has an article coming in its January issue. It is entitled, “Nelson head predicts ‘death of traditional book’.” You can read it online here.

Literary Agents Who Represent Christian Authors

Aspiring authors routinely ask me to recommend an agent. This is more difficult than you might think. For starters, we work with numerous agents and enjoy good relationships with all of them.

Second, it’s often just as difficult to find an agent as a publisher. Many agents are not accepting clients. However, if your project is good and you are persistent, you will eventually find one.

Kindle: First Impressions

The Amazon Kindle is not the ultimate eBook reader, but it is a giant step in the right direction. After using one heavily over the last 24 hours, I have found much that I like, things I don’t like, and a clearer vision for what the next eBook device should include.

Interestingly, most of the people complaining about the Kindle have not even tried it. It is almost as if the mere existence of the device—and it’s possible impact on traditional books—affects them in some strange, primal way.

Why Traditional Books Will Eventually Die

The book, as we know it today, will eventually die. It won’t happen all at once. And it won’t happen immediately. But, in my opinion, it is inevitable. Why? One word: efficiency.

The essence of technology is that it makes things more and more efficient. It automates processes—or completely eliminates them. As it does so, it takes costs out of the system. Once it is unleashed, it generally can’t be stopped.

More Details on the Amazon Kindle

Since I wrote my initial post last night, Amazon’s Kindle page has gone live. If you don’t do anything else, go to the page and watch the basic intro video. (If you scroll down, you’ll see a larger version of the intro video.) It looks even more interesting than I thought. It has certainly come a long way since I first saw the device 18 months ago.

As of today, Thomas Nelson has 668 titles available for Kindle download. Bob Edington, our VP of Internet Sales, tells me that many, many more are on their way. (Evidently, Amazon is trying to catch up with the backlog.) Just to put this into perspective, Zondervan, the second largest publisher in our space, has 53 titles. Tyndale, the third largest publisher in our space, has 57.

The Book 2.0

According to a new Newsweek report, entitled The Future of Reading, Amazon will introduce a device this week that could usher in the long-awaited ebook revolution. It is called the Amazon Kindle, named to evoke the crackling ignition of knowledge.

According to Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos (pictured above),

This is the most important thing we’ve ever done.... It’s so ambitious to take something as highly evolved as the book and improve on it. And maybe even change the way people read.

Five Books on the New York Times Bestseller List

I have worked at Thomas Nelson for almost ten years. The most books we’ve ever had on the New York Times bestsellers list at one time is three. That was more than two years ago.

Yesterday, we were notified by the Times that we will have five books on the October 21, 2007 list. This is a new record for our company. These include:

The Largest Quarter in Our History

We just announced today that the quarter ending September 30 was the largest in our 209-year history. Net revenues were up 10% for the quarter and 10% for the first six months of its fiscal year. (Our fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.) EBITDA was up 10% for the quarter and 18% fiscal year-to-date.

Our publishing segment has been especially sucessful this year. It was up 12% for the six months ending September 30. I believe this is the direct result of our One Company initiative. This initiative has afforded us the focus we needed to create products that are relevant to consumers.

Generating Retail Traffic

For the past several months, booksellers have been complaining about slow retail traffic. Publishers have complained, too, of course. But not all retail stores are experiencing this problem. Some are thriving.

Last night, I got a taste of this. While on the road, I visited the Apple Store inside the South Coast Mall in Costa Mesa, California. It was about 7:30 p.m. When I entered the mall, it seemed very quiet—almost deserted. Until I got to the Apple Store.

Friction and the Consumer Experience

For the past few days, I have been reflecting on a few very different retail experiences. I think I have discovered at least one way for bookstores to increase their sales. In a word, it is by eliminating friction. Let me explain.

On Thursday I decided to go on a bookstore “field trip.” I visited two major chain stores. I wanted to see what was new and how our books (those published by Thomas Nelson) were positioned.

The Expresso Book Machine

Currently, Amazon.com has a big competitive advantage compared to brick-and-mortar bookstores. In a word, that advantage is selection. Retail bookstores carry 5,000 to 150,000 book titles, depending on the size of the store, retail strategy, and available working capital. As “the Earth’s largest bookstore,” Amazon.com carries millions.

This makes it difficult for even the biggest bookstores to compete on selection. People get tired of making a trip to the store only to discover the title is out-of-stock. But that may soon change.

The Current Bookselling Environment

The book publishing market is tough right now. Earlier this week, Publishers Weekly reported that:

Bookstore sales continued their perfect record in 2007 in May, falling for the fifth consecutive month. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, sales in May were down 4.3%, to $1.10 billion, and were off by the same percentage for the first five months of the year. Bookstore sales totaled $6.20 billion in the January through May period. For the entire retail segment, sales were up 5.6% in May and were ahead 4.1% for the first five months of 2007.

ICRS: Day Four

I never thought I’d be so glad to see Wednesday. ICRS continues though Thursday, but we were done early. I was ready to get home.

I ate breakfast with Mike Coleman, CEO of Integrity Media, the largest Christian music company in the world. I did not really know Mike until we met at last year’s convention. We bought Integrity Publishers from him, and he and I became friends through that transaction. I always enjoy being with him.

ICRS: Day Three

Tuesday at ICRS was tiring, but not nearly as exhausting as Monday. I think this was because I had the evening free, which was a first since I arrived. Ten hours non-stop sure beats fifteen.

My first appointment of the day was the “CEO Breakfast” hosted by CBA, the association for Christian Retail. I sat between Bob Munce, CEO of The Munce Group, a marketing group providing services to some 600 independent Christian retail outlets, and Marshall Gage, president of Kirkbride Bible Company, publisher of the famous Thompson Chain Reference Bible. Marshall and I spent most of our time chatting about the National Bible Association. (He is on the Board.)

ICRS: Day Two

Monday was another full but exhausting day at the International Christian Retail Show in Atlanta (ICRS). Thankfully, the cool weather is still with us. Although the humidity was quite high (85%), the temperature remained in the 70s and low 80s. Even Denver, where we’ve had the convention for the past two years, wasn’t this cool.

I had breakfast with Dale Hansen Bourke, former publisher of Today’s Christian Woman and now a writer for Religion News Service (RNS). She had not attended ICRS for several years but was back to do a story on trends in the Christian marketplace. We’ve known each other for 25 years. As Jerry Jenkins quipped last night at the Book Awards show, “we’ve known each other since the Dead Sea was merely sick.”

ICRS: Day One

Gail and I are attending the International Christian Retail Show (the show formerly known as “CBA”) in Atlanta this week. I always dread coming to Atlanta in July, but yesterday was unseasonably cool. Believe it or not, the temperature was in the mid-70s.

I played golf Sunday morning in the Global Publishers Alliance Invitational Golf Tournament. Every single golfing spot was filled. We even had a waiting list. We also raised $52,000 for GPA. This money goes toward helping small Christian publishers in other parts of the world.

Video of My “Customer-Focused Publishing” Presentation at BEA

As I mentioned in my last post, the speech I gave at BEA in New York was video-taped. I provided a link to it at Publishers Lunch. Unfortunately, you have to be a member to view it.

Thankfully, BEA now has the video up on their Web site. You can watch it there if you are so inclined. Also, the video does not show my slides. If you want to see those, click here (12.7 MB) to download a PDF of my slides. I created them in Apple Keynote, but the PDF will enable you to view them on any platform. If you want to view the two video clips I showed, you can view them here and here.)

Technorati Tags: books, future, imprints, publishing

Why Imprints Don’t Matter

I spoke at Book Expo America last week in New York. In case you are not in the publishing business, this is our largest U.S. trade show. I spoke on the topic of “Customer Focused Publishing: How Thomas Nelson Moved Away from Imprints and Closer to Customer Wants.”

(If you are a member of Publisher’s Lunch, you can click here to watch my presentation on video. I have also asked the BEA organizer to upload it on YouTube.com, but I have not received a response. Also, the video does not show my slides. If you want to see those, click here (12.7 MB) to download a PDF of my slides. I created them in Apple Keynote, but the PDF will enable you to view them on any platform. If you want to view the two video clips I showed, you can view them here and here.)

My assignment was to justify why we eliminated our twenty-one separate imprints and are now focusing on the Thomas Nelson brand. In the eyes of some, this action amounted to heresy, since imprints are such a staple of traditional publishing.

Feed Your Brain: The Easy Way

The old adage, “so many books, so little time,” is more true now than ever. With almost 200,000 new titles published every year, we have a cornucopia of literary options. I don’t know about you, but I have a hard time keeping up.

Yet I know that “leaders are readers” and “readers are leaders.” If you are going to lead in today’s environment, you have to be a thought leader, and that only comes from reading. If you don’t keep up, you’ll fall behind. Before long, someone else will be doing the leading.

Imprints: An Endangered Species

Last fall, we first announced our “One Company Initiative.” Among other things, this called for the elimination of our 21 publishing imprints. This was effective as of April 1. From this point forward, we are publishing all of our books under the single “Thomas Nelson” imprint.

Now it looks like at least one other publisher has followed suit. In today’s edition of Religion BookLine (published by Publishers Weekly),

Track Amazon Sales Rankings with TitleZ

I frequently use Amazon to track how our books are ranked. More importantly, I use it to track how those ranking change over time. This is especially important on big books where you need near-immediate feedback. Often, you can see a direct correlation between a specific promotion or publicity event and upward movement in Amazon’s rankings.

The problem is that this can be a slow and tedious process. You have to go to Amazon’s Web site, search for the book you want, go to the specific title page, and then scroll down to the metadata to see the “Amazon.com Sales Rank.” However, unless you are willing to manually log this data into an Excel spreadsheet, there’s no way to keep track of the ranking history.

February Update: Top Ten Publishers in America

This is an update to the top ten publisher lists. We maintain two lists internally. First, we track all trade publishers. (Publishers whose books are primarily sold through retail booksellers as opposed to, say, textbook publishers.) The various imprints are consolidated into their parent companies. So, for example, HarperCollins includes William Morrow and Zondervan. Simon & Schuster includes Free Press, Pocket Books, Howard Books, Scribner, etc.

Second, we track all Christian publishers. In this case, we break out the Christian imprints of the trade publishers and rank them against each other. That’s why Zondervan, for example, is on the second list but not the first list. (Click on the images above and below to enlarge them. If you want to save the PDF files to your hard drive, right-click and download the linked files.)

Update: Top Ten Publishers in America

We just re-ran our list of the top ten publishers in America. Michael Cader at PublishersLunch.com pointed out that I had separated St. Martin’s Press from all the other Holtzbrinck imprints. (Holtzbrinck is the parent company of Farrar, Straus & Giroux, Henry Holt, MacMillan, and, of course, St. Martin’s.)

I asked Cletis Fisher, our database guru, to re-run the report, consolidating all the Holtzbrinck imprints. I also asked him to add Multnomah Books to Random House, since they were recently acquired by RH.

Why Books Are Here to Stay

Every now and then, someone speculates that books will be replaced by digital technology. I would agree: eventually, this will probably happen. But probably not any time soon.

John Lochridge, one of my readers, pointed me to an interesting post about a new break-through technology. It’s called the Built-In Orderly Organized Knowledge device, otherwise known as the BOOK.

Five Publishing Hurdles

If you’re an aspiring author, have ever wondered what happens to your book proposal after it arrives at the publishing house? Sometimes, I’m afraid, the acquisition process appears to be a sort of “black box.” Proposals are inserted into the black box and then disappear for weeks. At some point they pop out. Most are sent back to the author with a rejection letter. A precious few actually become a book.

But what happens while the proposal is inside the box? In this post I want to describe the internal proposal review process. If you have ever wondered how in the world publishing houses decide what to publish, this post is for you.

Publishing and the Current Economic Environment

Once a quarter, we compile a list of leading economic indicators that affect our industry and our business. I thought I would start sharing the report here. (Click on the chart below for a larger view. If you want a PDF version of the file that you can print out, click here.)

I think the business environment is analogous to a river’s current. Our performance as a company is analogous to how the boat moves through that current. Sometimes, you move faster than the current, sometimes you row against it, and sometimes you just drift with it.

Q & A with Christian Retailing About Bestseller Lists

Recently, I wrote a post entitled Why the Bestsellers Lists Are Inaccurate. I followed this up a few days later with another post on the same topic entitled Toward a Better Bestsellers List.

Andy Butcher, the editor of Christian Retailing magazine, read the posts. He then sent me an email with several questions. I agreed to answer them, provided I could do so on my blog. I also agreed to wait until his article was published before I published my answers to his questions.

Seven Out of the Top Ten Bestsellers

Publishers Weekly just published the February Christian Marketplace Bestsellers list. Amazingly, we have seven out of the top ten hardcover bestsellers. Here’s the list:

Rank	Title	Author
1	Facing Your Giants	Max Lucado
3	The Way of the Wild Heart	John Eldredge
4	Cure for the Common Life	Max Lucado
5	Get Out of That Pit!	Beth Moore
6	Captivating	John & Stasi Eldredge
7	Grace for the Moment, Vol. 2	Max Lucado
10	The Christmas Candle	Max Lucado

Congratulations to Max, John, Stasi, and Beth, as well as our publishing, sales, and marketing teams. I’m proud of you!

Technorati Tags: bestsellers, books, publishing, thomas nelson